Starting today (Jan 05, 2008) , I will be sharing my holdings and their NAV (Net assest value) on a monthly basis. The NAV calculation will be performed in a fashion similar to how an open ended mutual fund calculates its NAV.

The objective of this portfolio is to be aggressive and beat the S&P 500 handily over a two year period (2008 + 2009) i.e. at the end of 2009, have a two year portfolio return that beats the S&P two year return by a decent margin. The reason for a two year period is to allow the aggressive bets that have / will be taken this year during a period of economic uncertainty to have time to pay off.

Date : Dec 26, 2007

Holdings : 100% cash NAV : $10

Notes : The NAV has been baselined at $10 by dividing available cash into the appropriate number of units

Date : Jan 05, 2008

NAV : $9.35

Holdings:

American Eagle Outfitters AEO 4.75%
AuthenTec, Inc AUTH 5.04%
Ctrip.com International CTRP 4.96%
Guess?, Inc GES 13.67%
Corning Incorporated GLW 4.89%
Global Sources Ltd GSOL 2.43%
SiRF Technology Holdings SIRF 2.63%
Cash 61.63%

Notes : The 500+ point melt down in the Dow in first week of Jan 08 has taken a toll on the NAV. The cash position will be used to build positions in the current picks as well as new ones on further dips.

Date : Feb 14, 2008

NAV : $8.79

Holdings:

ProShares:UlS MC400 MZZ 5.09%
ProShares:UlS MSCI EM EEV 16.38%
ProShares:UlS MSCI Jpn EWV 5.70%
ProShares:UlS Semicond SSG 5.80%
Cash 61.01%

Notes : It has been a brutal month for stocks. I am bearish in the short to medium term and do not want to jeopardize capital trying to wait out the downturn in the economy. Hence, I have moved into the Ultra short ETFs to bet against emerging markets and Japan which have gone up quite a bit last year.

Date : Mar 09, 2008

NAV : $8.95

Holdings:

ProShares:UlS MC400 MZZ 5.56%
ProShares:UlS MSCI EM EEV 17.13%
ProShares:UlS MSCI Jpn EWV 5.90%

Cash 67.10%

Notes : An uptick in the NAV for the first time. I have booked profit in SSG and will be booking profits in the others soon. I will be opening positions in ProShares:UlS Rl Est (SRS) as the slowing economy will hit the REIT holdings in the US Real estate index. EEV has a large exposure to energy and materials which is slowing its upward movement. Hence, I will be moving to /opening positions in an alternate emerging markets Ultra short index.

Date : Apr 06, 2008

NAV : $8.93

Holdings:

YAMANA GOLD INC                                                  AUY    5.92%
ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 PROSHARES  FXP    8.80%
ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES                     SKF    3.51%
ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES                    SRS    5.99%
WUXI PHARMATECH                                                  WX     3.30%
YAHOO! INC                                                             YHOO 6.63%
Cash                                                                                   65.85%

Notes : NAV is practically unchanged from last month. However there were trades that made money (booking profits in EEV, EWV and MZZ) and lost money (buying into AUY and FXP early into the decline) during this period. The portfolio reflects a negative outlook for stocks medium term and an expectation of global inflation. A run up in the last couple of weeks seemed a good opportunity to go back into the short ETFs. WX and YHOO are the only exceptions – WX due to its expectation of being recession proof and YHOO because of the Microsoft offer.

Date : Sept 17, 2008

NAV : $8.15

Holdings:

Foster Wheeler                        FWLT      2.46%
Mastercard                              MA         5.91%
Mobile Telesystems                MBT        1.95%
Vimpel Communications        VIP          2.05%
Foster Wheeler options           UFB AY    2.18%
Gamestop options                  GME AH   1.31%
Nucor Options                        NUE AL    0.62%
Cash                                                       83.52%

Notes : There has been a gap of four months since my last update on the portfolio and on this historical day for the markets, I am re-starting my updates. In the last four months there have been hits and misses and the introduction of a new asset class – options. I have started adding options with expiration dates that are at least 6 months out. Some of the hits have come from options in Wuxi Pharmatec (WX) and Guess (GES) and Ultra short financials (SKF) and the misses came from entering Nucor and Foster wheeler ahead of their bottoming out and from the carnage in Russian stocks (VIP and MBT).

At this juncture, the market is in the grip of paranoia and a bottom (even if it is a short term bottom) is close at hand. There is enough cash in the portfolio ready to be deployed to take advantage of this ultra pessimism.